Are Lego prices ever going to crash?

[BrickG]

I'm talking old sets.

Investors are investing in Lego more and more. Collecting items and storing them for future profits. It's in the news a lot these days and you hear about it all the time now. People buying tons of sets for later resale.

With some sets like the Millennium Falcon UCS going for over 4x the original cost it's attracted a lot of attention. I'm wondering if future sets will see such a high rise in value.

I mean the issue with stuff like this is when people realize something is a good investment then sometimes waaay too many begin investing in it like those stuffed animals. Will we see more modern lego sets simply not go up that drastically in price? Will there be a "crash" of sorts? Will the prices be as insane as they've been? Lego does have one thing helping it out, people who buy this stuff tend to want to open the boxes :P.

I've just been looking at the history of Lego sets and it just seems like a pretty darned safe investment. Give the sets a few years and their value just goes insane sometimes (especially Star Wars :P). I'd consider investing but... first off I hate gambling. Also I see over-saturating happening in the future. Maybe I'm wrong. And even if the do take lower will it be THAT much lower (maybe 2x the price instead of 3x the price, something like that).

Edited May 31, 2013 by BrickG

[bacem]

yeah, there's that possibility too. that's why i choose lego, since i love lego. if something like that does happen, i can still add those sets in my collections or parts it out for MOC. with this kind of thinking pattern, ididn't really see any downside of investing in lego.

[Peppermint_M]

There wil always be a crash with kitsch items and pop cultural things when they are over speculated on. Comic Books, Trading Cards, Blind-Bag figures. While LEGO sets are not quite as fad based so there are often good sales to be had, the time will come when the bottom falls out of the market.

[leoparder]

Sincerely, I hope it will crash, seriously crash.

Because Lego should not be about price or profit, but just about fun and construction.

If only people could stop buying all the sets just for resale (B-wing anyone ? Future Technic challenge 4x4 crawler anyone ?) ... I would be so happy.

[LEGO Guy Bri]

Because Lego should not be about price or profit, but just about fun and construction.

Can this be forwarded to TLG marketing department. I don't think they got this memo

[harmacy]

I was actually thinking about this the other day. Here in New Zealand, our main eBay equivalent has a few sets on it that are priced exceptionally well - for example a UCS Falcon with a price of $NZD1650 (1330 USD) that is all original in great condition, with manual and all parts, and not one person has placed a bid.

There are a few questions in regards to condition of box inserts, but with only 36 hours to go, no bids.

If this was a year ago, It would have gone by now. I cant help but think that the recent release of the Red 5 X-wing may have shifted the mood of the Collectors market, and people are thinking that if they wait long enough, the UCS sets will eventually get rereleased.

[pinioncorp]

I have a couple of sets stashed away for a rainy day. I did intend on building them eventually, but depending on their price later on I may have a hard time opening them.

I wouldn't mind a price crash, it'd let me buy all those that I didn't get a chance to get, and let me open those that I did buy.

Whether a full blown crash will happen, I doubt it. The sets that are worth a considerable amount (UCS Falcon, Cafe Corner, etc.) are in limited supply. New sets however, will have more on the market and will simply not appreciate as much.

[Andy D]

I don't see a "crash" however, I do see a market stabilazation. I see sets listed for 10x original price, but, is anyone buying those sets?

I hope folks trying to make money, do make money. The only way the LEGO collector (not investor) can get sets at a reasonable price is to buy them new. I have come to the conclusion that there are some sets I will just never have and I live with that. If I want the set I will Bricklink it, it may not be exact, but it is good enough.

I do hope we do see a stabilazation, but not a crash, I would not like to see anyone lose money, no matter what their investment.

Just MHO, YMMV

Andy D